Japan is home of the world’s third largest economy, trailing only the United States and China, and has been viewed as the ultimate success story following the devastation of World War II. They managed to transform a war battered country into a technological pioneer with a remarkably high standard of living. Japan has been held up as a model for the poor world to follow in their pursuit of development. For the past half century it has been rare to hear negative news as it relates to the future prospects of the East Asian power which makes their current population trend even more alarming.
The current fertility rate in Japan is 1.4, one of the lowest rates on Earth and well below the 2.1 threshold needed to maintain a population at a stable level. Many women are choosing to not marry and have children because they prefer to pursue careers and challenge traditional gender roles. Once women marry they are expected to give up their jobs and take care of the home and family. Given the option of being glorified maids or using their higher educations to achieve financial independence, they are choosing to work. Adding to the issue is the lack of child care available to mothers who would like to return to work. Not only are child care options limited, but if they can find one the costs are ridiculously high.
This is not a problem Japan faces in the distant future, it is an immediate crisis. Japan’s population has declined in each of the last 7 years and that trend is only expected to accelerate. Japan has reached stage 5 of the Demographic Transition Model, where the death rate surpasses the birth rate, creating permanent and irreversible population loss. The defining characteristic of a stage 5 country is an aging society, Japan fits this profile perfectly with a median age just shy of 45. This gives them the second highest average age only behind the tiny European tax haven of Monaco. While their total population is dropping rapidly their dependency ratio is skyrocketing, the pressure to provide services to so many old people could devastate the Japanese economy as a whole.
One potential, seemingly easy solution to Japan’s population crisis would be to increase immigration. This is tricky in a country that has long resisted allowing foreigners permanent residence, especially from China. Despite Japan’s negative attitudes towards Chinese immigrants they are not going to have much of a choice but to open the border. With an average life expectancy of almost 85, they are going to need an influx of younger workers to sustain this large population of old people. Japan’s status as a world power depends on it.